The Death of John Henry: The H-2 Visa in the Robotic Future

Guest Blogger: Sam Frost, law student, University of San Francisco

In the 105 years since the term ‘robot’ first appeared in a Czech play, laboring automatons have featured prominently in visions of tomorrow. From the mid-century atomic utopianism of the Jetsons to the malevolent, corporate androids of the Alien franchise, the robot has been among the defining features of that Future that is always just over the horizon. That future has now well and truly crested the horizon. It is barreling towards us faster than those outside a new cadre of start-ups realize. We ought to begin thinking about the implications.

Why is this technology that has been ten-to-twenty years away for the last 60 years finally upon us? In short, AI. Robotic systems have long been able to perform tasks with superhuman strength and dexterity. Where the devices have struggled is in their direction, relying either on rigid programming or direct human control to accomplish their tasks. A robot on an assembly line can be programmed to weld fenders to frames for hours without rest, but it needs the pieces and targets to be presented in the same way each time for the choreography of the welding to function. A robotic surgery device can perform heart surgery through an incision smaller than a coin, but only with the steady hands of a surgeon on the controls. A robot that functioned autonomously could not do so adaptively, and one that could do so adaptively needed a human in the loop. AI allows robots to be far more adaptable than old-school programming ever could without requiring a person at the controls. Instead of requiring the consistency of an assembly line to operate autonomously, a robot can now thrive in an environment no less chaotic than California traffic. Waymo’s success and expansion is the beginning of a new era of robotic labor replacement, and more than just taxi drivers should be on notice. What does it mean when a robot can tidy up a hotel room? What does it mean when a robot can pick lettuce?

H-2 visas allow non-citizens to temporarily enter and work in the U.S. The H-2A visa covers agricultural workers, while the H-2B is for non-agricultural workers. Both require an employer to file a petition on the non-immigrant worker’s behalf. Hundreds of thousands of H-2A visas are issued each year, while H-2B visas are currently capped at 66,000. The companies that most frequently hire H-2B laborers are in the hospitality and landscaping industries. These visa programs are not just important for addressing shortages of willing domestic labor within the United States. The remittances sent home by H-2 Visa holders injects billions of dollars of much needed capital into their home economies annually.

For the first time since the program’s inception, those jobs most frequently filled by H-2 visa holders are facing the threat of automation. And there are strong reasons to expect the threat will be made good. Seasonal agricultural work, cleaning toilets at a hotel, handling sanitation at a meat-packing plant, this is work that is arduous, dirty, and poorly paying. The unattractiveness of this work is part of the reason for the H-2 visa program in the first place – there isn’t enough local labor that is willing to do it. But a robot doesn’t care. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t mind the beating sun. It’s not disgusted by a carelessly treated toilet or a heap of pig viscera. A robot will just do the work. A hotelier doesn’t need to worry about being sued because a robot stole from a patron. A farmer doesn’t need to provide facilities for a robot to relieve themselves. Neither has to worry about the robot complaining to the NLRB about working conditions. These pressures are being exacerbated by the current administration. The industries that employ the bulk of H-2 visa applicants also employ many undocumented workers. With the current crackdowns, the supply of undocumented labor is going to be lower than any point in recent memory. Immediately, that would create greater competition for H-2 visa labor, but that competition will drive up costs, and more expensive labor will be more eagerly replaced.

What does the American immigration landscape look like with a dramatically reduced need for labor? The expected first order effect would be that fewer people would come without the promise of relatively well-paying work, but what about knock-on effects? How will the economic uncertainty caused by the loss of billions of dollars in remittances lead to further political instability in immigrants’ home countries? That could lead to an increase in asylum seekers and refugees. What does the loss of work mean to immigrant communities here in the United States? How can their advocates help prepare them for what is to come? What does nativist opposition look like when robots are the ones “taking all the jobs”? What does immigration advocacy look like when robots are “taking jobs that citizens don’t want to do”?

John Henry was a steel-driving man. According to legend, John Henry bested a steam-powered drill in a race, but died shortly thereafter from overexerting himself in the attempt. John Henry’s tale has been immortalized in innumerable works of art, from folk ballads to Netflix Original Films. The U.S. government put him on a postage stamp; the Soviets held him up as a paragon of the exploited laborer. But no one asks what happened to the drill. Steel-driving men don’t dig tunnels anymore. Machines do. The day is fast approaching when women won’t pick peaches, and men won’t clean hotels. Robots will. That far Future that was once always over the horizon is now barreling towards us. It will arrive within our lifetime, if not within the next decade. It is going to change everything, including immigration law and advocacy. We ought to begin thinking about the implications.

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