U.S. Should Help Address Root Causes of Migration in Guatemala

Guest Blogger: Michael Fisher, law student, University of San Francisco

The United States helped sow instability in Guatemala; now it must help cultivate the stability that Guatemalans have long been denied. Several root causes have pushed, and will continue to push, millions of Guatemalans to migrate to the United States in search of a better quality of life. Analysts often explain this migration by pointing to climate change, gang violence, chronic economic stagnation, corruption, among other drivers of migration.[1] Ultimately, most Guatemalans leave because their government has failed to provide basic security, opportunity, and dignity. Because U.S. policy helped shape these conditions, the United States should support its neighbor by addressing the root causes of migration and helping Guatemala shape its own future.

Background. Guatemala’s deep historical inequalities help explain its present‑day instability. Before Spanish colonization, Guatemala was home to numerous Mayan and non-Mayan kingdoms. Today, Guatemala still has one of the largest Indigenous populations in the Americas, making up nearly half of the country.[2] Yet the Guatemalan state has long marginalized Indigenous communities, including through systematic persecution during the 36‑year civil war.[3] These divisions weakened the state and contributed to long‑term instability.

Guatemala’s modern political instability traces back to the mid‑20th century struggle over land reform and U.S. intervention. After independence from Spain and a brief incorporation into the First Mexican Empire, dictators largely ruled Guatemala until 1944, when Jorge Ubico resigned under pressure, and the country began a short‑lived democratic opening.[4] President Juan Arevalo implemented reforms aimed at reducing extreme land‑ownership disparities.[5] His successor, Jacobo Arbenz, attempted to deepen those reforms through Decree 900.[6] But the United Fruit Company, then controlling nearly half of Guatemala’s arable land and its largest port, viewed these reforms as a threat.[7] Arbenz was overthrown in 1954 with U.S. support, driven by Cold War fears that his left‑leaning policies signaled Soviet influence.[8] This rupture set Guatemala on a path of political instability that still shapes migration today.

Root problems. Mono‑causal explanations oversimplify Guatemala’s migration crisis. Climate change activists often argue that drought in the dry corridor is the primary driver of migration. While the region is vulnerable, this framing overlooks Guatemala’s rampant corruption, weak governance, and lack of state capacity. Other Central American countries, Belize, Costa Rica, Panama, also face climate pressures, yet they do not experience mass emigration because they enjoy relatively greater political stability. Climate change magnifies existing vulnerabilities; it generally does not create them.

Gang violence further destabilizes daily life. In Guatemala City, especially in poorer zones, residents face extortion and intimidation. In areas like Zone 18, gangs exercise de facto control. Public trust in the national police is low due to inadequate training and pervasive corruption. Although laws exist to combat crime, there are too few trustworthy officers to enforce them.

Chronic economic stagnation is arguably the most powerful driver of migration. Nearly 20% of Guatemala’s GDP comes from remittances sent by Guatemalans abroad, an indicator of the country’s inability to generate sustainable employment.[9] Guatemala’s main exports: bananas, coffee, and textiles do not support most of its population.[10] Upward mobility is rare in a highly stratified society where fewer than six percent of people hold a college degree.[11] Over half the population lives below the poverty line.[12]

Prescription. Instead of demonizing Guatemalan migrants, American nativists should try to understand the conditions from which these individuals are fleeing. The overwhelming majority of Guatemalan migrants are simply seeking a better life, and many intend to work temporarily and return home. Conservatives often argue that they want a secure border; addressing root causes in Guatemala would advance that goal more effectively than punitive measures at the border.

The asylum process offers a lawful pathway for some migrants, but the underlying drivers of migration will persist without structural change. The United States has a long history of intervention in Central America.[13] Today, it could rebuild goodwill through humanitarian engagement rather than coercive involvement. For example, expanding Peace Corps operations in Guatemala would be a meaningful start. Instead of deploying troops, the U.S. could send civil engineers, physicians, social workers, and other professionals. Engineers could help restore rail lines and build a modern freeway system to improve commerce. Bilingual social workers could teach in rural areas and raise literacy rates. This initiative would resemble Cuban medical internationalism… but would be democratic and voluntary.

The United States played a role in creating the conditions that drive Guatemalans to migrate; scholars may debate the degree, but the historical connection is undeniable. A sustained, cooperative development program would not only improve life in Guatemala but also reduce resentment toward the U.S. across Latin America. If U.S. actions helped sow instability, then U.S. partnership must help cultivate stability. Helping Guatemala cultivate stability is both a moral responsibility and a pragmatic investment in our Western hemisphere. 

[1]  House, The White (2021-07-29). "FACT SHEET: Strategy to Address the Root Causes of Migration in Central America". The White House. Retrieved 2024-10-17.

[2] Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Censo de Población 2018, https://censo2018.ine.gob.gt/cuantossomos.

[3] Elizabeth Oglesby, Guatemalan Genocide, in Modern Genocide: The Definitive Resource and Document Collection 877 (ABC‑CLIO 2015).

[4] Piero Gleijeses, Shattered Hope: The Guatemalan Revolution and the United States, 1944–1954 (Princeton Univ. Press 1991).

[5] Cindy Forster, The Time of Freedom: Campesino Workers in Guatemala’s October Revolution (Univ. of Pittsburgh Press 2001).

[6] Gleijeses, supra note at 46–49.

[7] Stephen Schlesinger & Stephen Kinzer, Bitter Fruit: The Story of the American Coup in Guatemala (Harvard Univ. Press 1999).

[8] Richard H. Immerman, The CIA in Guatemala: The Foreign Policy of Intervention (Univ. of Tex. Press 1982).

[9] International Monetary Fund, Guatemala: Remittances and Reserves Accumulation in Guatemala, IMF Staff Country Report No. 24/267 (Aug. 5, 2024), https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2024/267/article-A004-en.xml.

[10] Guatemala: Climate, Encyclopaedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/Guatemala/Climate.

[11] Instituto Nacional de Estadística, supra note.

[12] World Food Programme USA, Guatemala, https://wfpusa.org/place/guatemala/.

[13] History of U.S. Intervention in Latin America and the Caribbean, Encyclopaedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/topic/History-of-US-Intervention-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.